Paper: Evaluation the Efficiency of the FOMCs New Economics Projections
Author: Natsuki ARAI (Contact: natsuki.ar@gmail.com)
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Date: 9/15/2015
Folder Title: Main Analysis

Description of the files contained in the folder:

Matlab Files:
1. FOMC: Main code for FOMCs efficiency evaluations 
2. SpfEff: Main code for SPFs efficiency evaluations 

(For both tests, the evaluations are based on five different tests, the inference of which is based on the bootstrap)

Matlab Function files:
3. Bias: Computing the bias of forecasts
4. AuCo: Computing the autocorrelation of forecasts
5. Wald: Computing the Wald statistic of forecasts
6. SigMat: Transforming the values of forecast revisions into the signs of forecasts revisions 
7. RevTest: Computing the p-value based on the positive sign test
8. ConRevTest: Computing the p-value based on the signs of consecutive revisions test
9. OrgPjMannual: Organizing the FOMCs projections for the bootstrap inference
10. OrgSpf: Organizing the SPF forecasts for the bootstrap inference

Matlab Data Files:
(Copied from the data folder) 
11. Cen Tend: Data of central tendency in the FOMCs economic projections
12. Range: Data of range in the FOMCs economics projections
13. SpfMean: Data of mean of the SPFs forecasts
14. SpfMed: Data of median of the SPFs forecasts

